Writing

The thinking behind the work.

Essays and short notes drawn from real projects — each tagged with the capability it explores. Read them to judge the thinking, not just the credentials.

Essays · 4

EssayValuation & transactions

Valuing a company that is shrinking on purpose

UPS is deliberately walking away from its largest customer. A single growth rate can’t value that. Here is how I rebuilt the model around revenue quality — and why my answer is a range, not a number.

Sep 30, 2026 5 min read Interactive model

EssayOperating leadership

Restarting a factory after two years of war: the order of operations

In 2023 I came back to a detergent plant that had been shut for two years by the Tigray conflict. No outside capital, lapsed suppliers, lost customers. What mattered most wasn’t any single fix — it was the sequence.

Sep 30, 2026 3 min read Interactive model

EssayStrategy & problem solving

Signal, not oracle: what 6,184 resolved forecasts taught me about trusting the crowd

Our team tested whether a global reinsurer could use crowd forecasts to see emerging risks earlier. The platform beat its baseline by 30.5%. The more useful finding was where that number should — and shouldn’t — be allowed to go.

Sep 30, 2026 3 min read Interactive model

EssayValuation & transactions

How much synergy are you actually paying for?

In our M&A final project, Goodyear faced a $64 ask for Cooper Tire. Standalone, Cooper was worth about $43 a share. The real question wasn’t the valuation — it was how much of the synergy case the buyer was pre-paying.

Sep 30, 2026 3 min read Interactive model

Short notes · 4

NoteCorporate finance & FP&AUPS’s unit cost rose 9.5%. Read it as the transition, not the verdict.

2 min

NoteStrategy & problem solvingAmazon is leaving UPS as a customer and arriving as a competitor

2 min

NoteValuation & transactionsWhy I split healthcare out of UPS’s supply chain segment

2 min

NoteStrategy & problem solvingA 70% forecast should be wrong three times in ten

2 min